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Copyright 2006 John Piper

Online Stock Market Trading There has been much written about the threat of a bird flu pandemic. Much of it is either alarmist or inaccurate. However the truth is not a great deal more digestible.

Avian bird flu on the other hand is a form of flu that was originally believed to infect birds only, but turned up among humans in Hong Kong in 1997. Avian bird flu can affect humans, but only when they come in close contact with live infected birds and manage to inhale the virus. fever, malaise, sore throats and coughs.

Stock Investing Course First I will examine the facts as they stand. The virus in this case has been labelled H5N1 and it is a fairly close relation to the virus H1N1 which caused the "Spanish" flu pandemic in 1918/19. That outbreak followed the Great War (aka World War I) and killed many more than that war itself. Most estimates of the death toll of H1N1 range from 50 million to 100 million!

Normally the avian bird flu viruses do not affect humans but since 1997 (when the first case of avian bird flu among humans appeared in Hong Kong), this kind of flu has infected and killed several humans in the South East Asian countries. While WHO does not recommend avoiding travels to these countries, it does advice staying away from live animal markets and poultry farms. This is because the droppings of infected birds generally carry large quantities of the virus.

Stock Market Game H5N1 is currently decimating bird stocks around the world and is spreading alarmingly with recent outbreaks in Turkey, Cyprus and now Africa and Italy. In its current form H5N1 is not a great threat to mankind and those who have become infected with the virus have been in close contact with infected birds. But we must not underestimate or ignore the human misery caused by those who have died through infection and the loss to livelihood caused by the destruction of avian farming stocks.

Influenza News Three Swans Dead Due to Bird Flu in Dorset, UK Jan 29, Posted in Influenza The first case of bird flu virus in the UK was recorded in April 2006 in Scotland. Extensive control was taken up at that time. A new case of bird flu in the UK was reported, as three wild swans in Dorset died due to the avian virus strain and a fourth one was tested positive......

Stock Investing Game So what is all the fuss about? Simply that viruses tend to evolve and, over time, it is likely that H5N1 will "learn" to infect humans far more easily. Viruses can learn in a variety of ways. One way is through normal evolution and they evolve far quicker than we do - indeed some strains of H5N1 are already showing resistance to Tamiflu - the current antiviral of choice. A quicker route is if the virus should find itself inhabiting the same body as a human flu virus - perhaps in a human being or perhaps in a pig - among other possibilities. When this happens the viruses often swap information.

This is the first case of a flock of German farm poultry contracting bird flu, the wire service reports, although several cases of the virus were found in wild birds in Germany this year. Health officials remain alert to the possibility that the avian flu virus could mutate and cause it to be transmitted from human to human. Although the World Health Organization puts the number of human deaths from avian flu at 190, none of them is ascribed to contagion between humans, the AP reports.

Journal Prime Rate Street Wall The consensus of opinion among the great and the good of the scientific community is that it is only a matter of time before H5N1 becomes capable of human-to-human transmission - that it is inevitable!

Influenza (also commonly known as the flu) is a highly contagious respiratory disease. Caused by the influenza virus, it can generally hit anyone at any time. However autumn and winter are the most active seasons for the flu virus. These are also the season when migratory birds bring with them an increased threat of avian bird flu. remember, it's free and without any obligation.

Stock Market News Once that happens the pandemic begins.

Stock Investing Basics But even then a great deal of uncertainty exists. There are two key statistics when it comes to a virus rather as there are two key statistics when it comes to marketing a web site. In the case of the web site the first key statistic is how many people reading your banner ad/your email promo click through to your web site. The second is how may of those actually buy.

Stock Investing Software In the case of the virus it is far more morbid. The two key statistics are the infection rate and the mortality rate.

Stock Market Trading There have been three recognised pandemics in the last 100 years. All three had infection rates of around 25%. The 1918/19 pandemic also had a mortality rate of between 2.5% - 5% which is why it was so deadly. The pandemics of 1957/58 and 1968/69 had mortality rates of around 0.37%.

Stock Investing For Dummy These statistics are really the source of all the hype and concern because currently H5N1 is killing around 50% of those it infects!

Stock Market Crash Hence we get claims that 1.5 billion (sic) people will die. The mathematics is simple. We assume an infection rate of 50%, and some say "Spanish" flu infected 50% of people, and we apply the current mortality rate of 50% to the current world population in excess of 6 billion people. Result: one in four dies.

Stock Investing Tip But this over looks a key point. Usually a virus that mutates to become capable of human-to-human transmission becomes much less deadly in the process.

Stock Market Chart The bottom line - we simply do not know what we might face.

Online Stock Investing The key question - how much time and money do we spend on a threat which may be a complete damp squib or may decimate human population?

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Stock Investing For Beginner John Piper is a freelance researcher and writer with four books under his belt. He specialises in stock markets and health. Feel free to contact the author at john@ttttt.freeserve.co.uk with any comments on this article or visit
http://www.virusalert1.com for John's Book on bird flu.

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